ä¸xadç¾è´¸æ˜“战ä¸xadçš„ èµ´ç¾ç•™åxad¦ Sino-US Trade War’s Impact on Studying in the USA

       2019å¹´6月20æ—¥

　　为了更好地å¢å¼ºå®¶æ ¡æ²Ÿé€šï¼Œä½¿å®¶é•¿èƒ½å¤Ÿå¸®åŠ©åxad¦æ ¡æ›´å¥½åœ°æˆé•¿ï¼ŒåŒæ—¶ä¹Ÿä¸ºäº†æ高家长和åxad©åxad的沟通能力，å¢è¿›äº²åxad关系，上海å®æ¶¦åšæºåxad¦æ ¡æ ¡æ–¹å’Œå®¶æ ¡è”åˆä¼šè®¡åˆ’开展家长沙龙。本åxad¦å¹´äº6月6日和6月20日下åˆè¯•è¿è¡Œä¸¤æ¬¡ï¼Œä¸‹åxad¦å¹´å¼€å§‹æ¯æœˆæœˆæœ«ä¸€æ¬¡ã€‚

　　本åxad¦å¹´çš„ä¸¤æ¬¡æ²™é¾™éƒ½ç”±æˆ‘æ ¡å¤–æ–¹æ ¡é•¿ Christopher Moses 主讲，第一次的主题是“å‡åxad¦æŒ‡å¯¼”(什么是å‡åxad¦æŒ‡å¯¼ï¼Œæˆ‘们是æ€ä¹ˆåšçš„);第二次的主题是“ä¸xadç¾è´¸æ˜“战ä¸xadçš„èµ´ç¾ç•™åxad¦”。Chrisæ ¡é•¿å¯¹ç¾å›½æ”¿æ²»ä½“ç³»åŠå…¶å†å²å‘展有深刻认识，一起æ¥çœ‹ä¸€ä¸‹ä¸“业的ç¾å›½äººå£«å¦‚何看待特朗普å‘起的贸易战以åŠè¿™ç§å½¢åŠ¿ä¸‹çš„èµ´ç¾ç•™åxad¦ã€‚

　　Good afternoon, parents.

　　å„ä½å®¶é•¿ä¸‹åˆå¥½ï¼Œ

　　Today I’ve been asked to share some thoughts about the current situation involving US-China relations. I’m certainly not an expert, but I hope I can offer some perspectives and context that can help better frame the issue. I know that things may seem uncertain, which is all the more reason to reassure ourselves with clarity about what we do know.

　　今天我想谈谈ä¸xadç¾å…³ç³»çš„ç°çŠ¶ã€‚虽然我ä¸æ˜¯è¿™æ–¹é¢çš„专家，但是我希望我今天æ供的观点和背景信æ¯å¯ä»¥å¸®åŠ©å¤§å®¶æ›´å¥½åœ°ç†è§£è¿™ä¸ªé—®é¢˜ã€‚虽然ç°åœ¨å±€åŠ¿è¿˜ä¸æ˜æœ—，åxad˜åœ¨ä¸€äº›ä¸ç¡®å®šæ€§ï¼Œä½†æ˜¯æˆ‘们更应该用我们知é“的，已ç»ç¡®å®šçš„东西æ¥å®‰å®šæˆ‘们的心ç¥ã€‚

　　I will divide my comments into two parts:

　　今天我主è¦è®²ä¸¤éƒ¨åˆ†å†…容。

　　the first will offer some context as to the US political environment, and considerations that make lead the current administration to step back from its current approach and become more open to constructive negotiation.

　　第一部分，我想讲一下有关ç¾å›½æ”¿æ²»ç¯å¢ƒçš„大背景以åŠä¸€äº›ä¼šè¿«ä½¿ç¾å›½æ‰§æ”¿å½“局放弃ç°åœ¨çš„对抗性çxad–略，采å–æ›´åŠ å¼€æ”¾çš„æœ‰å»ºè®¾æ€§çš„è°ˆåˆ¤çxad–略的考é‡å› ç´ ã€‚

　　Second, I want to speak more specifically to issues related to education.

　　第二部分，我想专门谈一下ä¸xadç¾è´¸æ˜“战对赴ç¾ç•™åxad¦çš„å½±å“。

　　First, then: I’m far from alone in considering the Trump administration to be anomalous in the recent history of the United States. Regardless of what one thinks of the man as a person, and I will refrain from offering my own views (since my grandmother told me, if you don’t have anything nice to say, you shouldn’t say anything at all) – the actual policies of his administration challenge basic and longstanding approaches of his Republican party (and the larger corporations and wealthier individuals it tends to represent).

　　首先，很多ç¾å›½äººéƒ½è·Ÿæˆ‘ä¸€æ ·ï¼Œè®¤ä¸ºç‰¹æœ—æ™®æ”¿åºœçš„å‡ºç°æ˜¯ç¾å›½è¿‘代å†å²ä¸Šçš„异常事件。ä¸ç®¡å¤§å®¶æ€ä¹ˆè¯„价特朗普这个人，我在这儿就ä¸å¯¹ä»–这个人作出评价了(å› ä¸ºæˆ‘ç¥–æ¯è·Ÿæˆ‘说过，如æœä½ 没有什么好å¬çš„è¯è¯´ï¼Œå°±æœ€å¥½ä»€ä¹ˆéƒ½åˆ«è¯´äº†)。特朗普政府ç°åœ¨æ¨è¡Œçš„政çxad–挑战了他所å±çš„共和党以åŠå…±å’Œå…šæ‰€ä»£è¡¨çš„大ä¼ä¸šå’Œå¤§è´¢å›¢ä¸€ç›´ä»¥æ¥ç§‰æ‰¿çš„基本çxad–略。

　　Indeed, for generations that party has been guided by an ideology of free trade and limited government intervention in the market.

　　å®é™…上，共和党一直以æ¥å¥‰è¡Œçš„ç†å¿µæ˜¯æ”¯æŒè‡ªç”±è´¸æ˜“，é™åˆ¶æ”¿åºœå¹²é¢„市场。

　　This means that while there is a broad recognition amongst political leaders that the US-China relationship must continue to evolve, there is far from unified support about Trump’s policies or his approach – using tariffs and supposedly security-based justifications to limit certain sectors of trade.

　　这也æ„味ç€è®¸å¤šç¾å›½é¢†å¯¼äººéƒ½è®¤ä¸ºä¸xadç¾å…³ç³»åº”当æŒç»xadå‘展，而ä¸æ˜¯ä¸€è¾¹å€’地支æŒç‰¹æœ—普的政çxad–å’Œçxad–略，å³åˆ©ç”¨å…³ç¨æˆ–以国家安全为由é™åˆ¶ä¸€äº›é¢†åŸŸçš„贸易。

　　Even more difficult for Trump, the same bravado that he has used with China has also been directed toward some of the closest and longest-standing allies of the US: threats to Japan and the EU about car production, battles with Canada and Mexico over NAFTA, and comments that challenge aspects of Great Britain’s own trade practices (to name just a few). Just last week, Trump’s further threats to use tariffs against Mexico in response to immigration across the US’s southern border led to a broad and open rebuke from Republicans in Congress – who are very sensitive to corporation’s frustrations with Trump’s policies. They forced his hand, causing him quickly to announce a “great deal” and save face.

　　特朗普的处境比较艰难，他ä¸ä½†åœ¨å¤„ç†ä¸xadç¾å…³ç³»æ—¶è™šå¼ 声势和冒进，在对待ç¾å›½é•¿æœŸä»¥æ¥çš„盟å‹å›½æ—¶äº¦æ˜¯å¦‚æxad¤ï¼Œæ¯”å¦‚ï¼šåœ¨æ±½è½¦åˆ¶é€ æ–¹é¢å¨èƒæ—¥æœ¬å’Œæ¬§ç›Ÿï¼Œåœ¨åŒ—ç¾è‡ªç”±è´¸æ˜“å定上ä¸åŠ 拿大和墨西哥产生争执，å‘出挑战英国国家贸易政çxad–的评论çxad‰ã€‚上周，在对待墨西哥移民ä»ç¾å›½å—部边境进入ç¾å›½çš„问题上，特朗普用进一æxad¥æ高关ç¨å¨èƒå¢¨è¥¿å“¥ï¼Œè¿™ä¸€ä¸¾æªåœ¨å›½ä¼šä¸Šéxad到共和党人广泛公开的å对。共和党åŠå…¶æ‰€ä»£è¡¨çš„ä¼ä¸šå’Œåˆ©ç›Šé›†å›¢å¯¹ç‰¹æœ—普政府让人失望的政çxad–é常æ•æ„Ÿã€‚ä»–ä»¬ç»™ç‰¹æœ—æ™®æ–½åŠ å‹åŠ›ï¼Œå¯¼è‡´ä»–匆匆宣布达æˆäº†"ä¸é”™çš„交易“，为挽å›é¢œé¢ï¼Œè‰è‰æ”¶åœºã€‚

　　So, there is tension in Trump’s relationship with his own party, and also with international allies – which means that actually trying to manage the trade war he has provoked becomes much harder, as he is acting in isolation and with uncertain support. Further, he is hampered by the fact that he has proposed only a very vague endgame regards his actions, citing the trade deficit and amorphous concerns about “fairness.”

　　由æxad¤ä¹Ÿä¸éš¾çœ‹å‡ºï¼Œç‰¹æœ—æ™®ä¸å…¶æ‰€å±çš„共和党以åŠå›½é™…盟å‹çš„å…³ç³»éƒ½å¾ˆç´§å¼ ã€‚è¿™ä¹Ÿæ„味ç€ï¼Œä»–想æ§åˆ¶è‡ªå·±æŒ‘èµ·çš„è´¸æ˜“æˆ˜ä¼šæ›´åŠ è‰°éš¾ï¼Œå› ä¸ºä»–ç°åœ¨æ˜¯å…‰æ†å¸ä»¤ï¼Œå¾—ä¸åˆ°ç¡®å®šçš„支æŒã€‚æxad¤å¤–，他åªæ˜¯ä»¥è´¸æ˜“逆差，以åŠå¯¹äº“贸易公平”çš„å«ç³Šçš„担心为由æ¥æ”¯æŒè‡ªå·±çš„行为，但并没有æ˜ç¡®è¡¨æ˜ä»–想通过这些行为æ¥å®ç°æ€æ ·çš„结æœï¼Œè¿™æœ¬èº«ä¹Ÿä¼šé™åˆ¶ä»–的行为。

　　To a larger extent, he is trapped by a certain nostalgia for a great age of manufacturing which will never return and, as sensible commentators point out, ended not because of trade with China, but as a result of technological change and automation. Trump’s view of economics and trade as a zero-sum game appeals to certain elements of the US populous, but the mounting costs of the trade war, and further and more severe consequences, may undermine even that base of support.

　　很大程度上，特朗普陷入了一ç§å¯¹ç¾å›½è¿‡å»åˆ¶é€ 业蓬勃å‘展的ç¾å¥½æ—¶ä»£çš„怀æ‹ï¼Œä½†è¿™ä¸ªæ—¶ä»£ä¸ä¼šé€†å†å²è¶‹åŠ¿é‡ç°ã€‚æxad£å¦‚一些æ˜æ™ºçš„ç¤¾è¯„äººå‘˜æ‰€è¯´çš„é‚£æ ·ï¼Œè¿™ä¸ªæ—¶ä»£çš„ç»ˆç»“ä¸æ˜¯å› 为ä¸ä¸xadå›½çš„è´¸æ˜“ï¼Œè€Œæ˜¯å› ä¸ºç§‘æŠ€çš„å‘展和自动化。特朗普认为ç»æµå’Œè´¸æ˜“是一场“零和”游æˆçš„观点对äºéƒ¨åˆ†ç¾å›½äººç¡®å®æœ‰å¸å¼•åŠ›ï¼Œä½†æ˜¯è´¸æ˜“战带æ¥æˆæœ¬æ”€å‡ï¼Œä»¥åŠæ¥ä¸‹æ¥æ›´ä¸¥é‡çš„åæœï¼Œå¯èƒ½ä¼šä»æ ¹æœ¬ä¸Šå‰Šå¼±è¿™éƒ¨åˆ†äººå¯¹ç‰¹æœ—普的支æŒã€‚

　　Trump has enjoyed a sort of economic honeymoon in the first years of his presidency, though many longer-term indicators (well beyond the trade war) suggest that the US economy will face greater challenges in the near future. The massive tax cuts passed early in his administration served as a sort of stimulus for increased corporate profits and buoyed the stock market, but other persistent concerns – wage stagnation, healthcare costs, affordable housing, student loan debt, and the like, still remain.

　　特éƒæ™®åˆšä¸Šå°çš„两三年里，ç¾å›½ç»æµç¡®å®æœ‰æ‰€æ”¹å–„ï¼Œä½†æ˜¯è®¸å¤šé•¿æœŸæŒ‡æ ‡(超越暂时的贸易战)表æ˜ç¾å›½ç»æµå°†ä¼šåœ¨ä¸ä¹…çš„å°†æ¥é¢ä¸´æ›´å¤§çš„挑战。特朗普上å°ä¹‹åˆå¤§å¹…削å‡ç¨æ”¶ï¼Œç¡®å®åˆºæ¿€äº†ç¾å›½ä¼ä¸šåˆ©ç›Šçš„å¢é•¿ï¼Œä½¿è‚¡å¸‚上浮，但是长期以æ¥åxad˜åœ¨çš„问题如工资åœæ»ã€åŒ»ç–—æˆæœ¬ã€ç»æµé€‚用房ã€åxad¦ç”Ÿè´·æ¬¾å€ºåŠ¡çxad‰é—®é¢˜ä¾ç„¶åxad˜åœ¨ã€‚

　　This fall, Congress will also need to pass a budget and increase the debt ceiling so that the US can continue to operate—yet there is little suggestion that an agreement will be reached easily. This could lead to another government shutdown and unsettle both bond and equities markets, with serious consequences throughout the economy.

　　今年秋åxad£ï¼Œç¾å›½å›½ä¼šéœ€è¦å†é€šè¿‡ä¸€ä¸ªé¢„ç®—æ案，æå‡å€ºåŠ¡çš„上é™ï¼Œä»¥ç¡®ä¿ç¾å›½æ”¿åºœå¯ä»¥æxad£å¸¸è¿è¡Œã€‚ä¸è¿‡ï¼Œç›®å‰æ¥çœ‹ï¼Œè¿™ä¸ªæ案没那么容易通过。这也å¯èƒ½å¯¼è‡´ç¾å›½æ”¿åºœå†æ¬¡å…³é—¨ï¼Œä½¿è¯åŠµå’Œè‚¡æƒå¸‚场å†æ¬¡åŠ¨è¡ï¼Œä¸¥é‡å½±å“ç¾å›½ç»æµã€‚

　　Also, this fall will also present two further challenges for Trump’s economic policies.

　　今年秋åxad£ï¼Œç‰¹æœ—普政府的ç»æµæ”¿çxad–还将é¢ä¸´ä¸¤å¤§æŒ‘战。

　　First, the agricultural sector will be reckoning with losses (and trying to recoup subsidies from the government) because of its inability to sell to China. While not a major part of the overall US economy, farmers – and the midwestern states in which they live – have a hugely outsized political influence (as a result of the fact that seats in the powerful Senate, or upper house of Congress, are allocated by state and not by population).

　　首先，农业部将会计算自己的æŸå¤±ï¼Œå¹¶ä¸”试图ä»æ”¿åºœé‚£é‡Œè·å¾—è¡¥è´´ï¼Œå› ä¸ºç‰¹æœ—æ™®æ”¿åºœçš„æ”¿çxad–é™åˆ¶äº†å†œäº§å“出å£ä¸xad国。虽说农业在ç¾å›½æ•´ä½“ç»æµä¸xadçš„å 比ä¸å¤§ï¼Œä½†æ˜¯å†œæ°‘，以åŠä»–们所在的ä¸xad西部诸å·å¯¹ç¾å›½æ”¿æ²»æœ‰é常大的影å“ï¼Œå› ä¸ºå‚议院的å¸xadä½ï¼Œä¹Ÿå°±æ˜¯ç¾å›½å›½ä¼šçš„上议院的å¸xadä½ï¼Œä¸æ˜¯æŒ‰ç…§æ¯ä¸ªå·çš„人数决定å¸xadä½çš„，而是æ¯ä¸ªå·éƒ½æœ‰å›ºå®šçš„å¸xadä½ã€‚

　　Worse, many of those farmers have also been hampered this season by excessive rain this spring, limiting their crops. When their debt comes due and they also must plan for next year’s growing season, considerable pressure will mount on the Trump administration to normalize markets.

　　æxad¤å¤–，😔由äºä»Šå¹´æ˜¥åxad£é™é›¨è¿‡å¤šï¼Œå†œä½œç‰©äº§é‡å—到影å“ï¼Œè¿™ä¹Ÿå°†åŠ å‰§å†œæ°‘é¢ä¸´çš„困境。当他们需è¦è¿˜è´¦ï¼Œä¸”需è¦ä¸ºæ¥å¹´çš„耕ç§åšå‡†çš„时候，他们会å‘ç‰¹æœ—æ™®æ”¿åºœæ–½åŠ å¾ˆå¤§çš„å‹åŠ›ï¼Œä½¿è´¸æ˜“æxad£å¸¸åŒ–。

　　Second, the Christmas holiday shopping season represents the largest outlay of consumer spending in the US, and this year, particularly if additional tariffs are enacted, Americans will face noticeably higher prices as manufacturers, importers and retailers cover their increased costs.

　　其次，圣è¯èŠ‚è´xad物åxad£æ˜¯ç¾å›½æ¶ˆè´¹è€…集ä¸xad消费最多的时候。今年，尤其是若关ç¨å†æœ‰é¢å¤–å¢åŠ çš„è¯ï¼Œç¾å›½æ°‘众将会æ˜æ˜¾æ„Ÿå—åˆ°ç‰©ä»·ä¸Šæ¶¨ï¼Œå› ä¸ºåˆ¶é€ å•†ï¼Œè¿›å£å•†å’Œé›¶å”®å•†ä¼šæ高售价，弥补æˆæœ¬çš„å¢åŠ 。

　　Trump has been trying to pressure the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to continue an economy followed by cheap borrowing, but even if they bow to his pressure (or respond to a weakening economy) they face a conundrum: first, they will be less equipped to deal with inflationary pressures caused by rising prices due to tariffs (as well and the potential on increased fuel costs if instability increases with Iran and other Gulf countries) on the one hand, and have less leeway for stimulating economic spending if a more severe downturn does materialize.

　　特朗普试图å‘ç¾è”储施å‹è®©å…¶é™æ¯ï¼Œä»¥é€šè¿‡ä½æ¯å€Ÿè´·ç»§ç»xad刺激ç»æµï¼Œä½†æ˜¯å³ä½¿ç¾è”储屈æœäºç‰¹æœ—普的å‹åŠ›ï¼Œæˆ–者对ç»æµä¸‹è¡Œä½œå‡ºå应，他们ä¾ç„¶é¢ä¸´ä¸€ä¸ªéš¾é¢˜ï¼šä¸€æ–¹é¢ï¼Œé¢å¤–çš„å…³ç¨ï¼Œä¼Šæœ—以åŠå…¶å®ƒæµ·æ¹¾å›½å®¶çš„局势ä¸ç¨³å®šå¯èƒ½å¯¼è‡´çš„油价上涨，都会进一æxad¥å¯¼è‡´ç‰©ä»·ä¸Šæ¶¨ï¼Œè‹¥ç¾è”储ç°åœ¨é™æ¯ï¼Œå°†æ— 法有效地应对物价上涨带æ¥çš„通货膨胀å‹åŠ›;å¦ä¸€æ–¹é¢ï¼Œè‹¥æ›´ä¸¥é‡çš„ç»æµä¸‹è¡Œå‡ºç°çš„时候，利ç‡ä¸Šç•™å‡ºçš„刺激消费的余地也将会很少。

　　Which is all to say, more broadly, Trump faces a number of challenges, both foreign and domestic, well beyond relations with China. Given the poor track record the administration has when focused on any one of these issues, the possibility of having to juggle multiple of them has the potential to further exacerbate its ineffectual approaches.

　　也就是说，ä»æ›´å¹¿æ³›çš„角度æ¥çœ‹ï¼Œç‰¹æœ—æ™®é¢ä¸´ç€å›½å†…外一系列挑战，远ä¸æxad¢æ˜¯å’Œä¸xad国的关系这一个方é¢ã€‚鉴äºç‰¹æœ—普政府在集ä¸xad处ç†æŸä¸€ä¸ªé—®é¢˜æ—¶çš„糟糕表ç°æ¥çœ‹ï¼Œä»–若想åŒæ—¶å‘¨æ—‹å¤„ç†è¿™ä¹ˆå¤šé—®é¢˜ï¼Œåªèƒ½ä¼šå¢åŠ 其失败的å¯èƒ½æ€§ã€‚

　　Trump also will have to confront the challenges presented by his re-election bid in the next year, which will make him all the more vulnerable to a weakening economy. Of course, his ability to spark outrage will remain a constant theme, and such instability does not lead to an optimal environment for negotiation or strategic action.

　　æxad¤å¤–，特朗普还需è¦é¢å¯¹æ˜å¹´å†æ¬¡å‚选所带æ¥çš„挑战，目å‰ç¾å›½ç–²è½¯çš„ç»æµä¹Ÿå¯¹ä»–很ä¸åˆ©ã€‚当然， ä»–å¯èƒ½ä¼šç»§ç»xad煽动部分民众的愤怒情绪，ä¸è¿‡ï¼Œè¿™æ ·çš„ä¸ç¨³å®šæ€§å¯¹å½¢æˆè‰¯å¥½çš„谈判和战略决çxad–ç¯å¢ƒæ— 益。

　　Ideally, though, wiser and more sensible advice will be taken if mounting pressures force Trump to confront the costs of his economic policies, particularly with regards to tariffs – and this isn’t even considering measures China may take to stimulate changes in the US position.

　　比较ç†æƒ³çš„情况是，ä¸æ–xadå¢åŠ 的内外部å‹åŠ›è¿«ä½¿ç‰¹æœ—普直é¢ä»–çš„ç»æµæ”¿çxad–(尤其是å¢åŠ å…³ç¨)æ‰€é€ æˆçš„æŸå¤±ï¼Œé‡‡å–ç†æ€§å’Œæ˜æ™ºçš„建议。ä¸è¿‡ï¼Œè¿™ä¸ªå‹åŠ›è¿˜æ²¡æœ‰ç®—上ä¸xad国政府在应对贸易战时所采å–çš„æªæ–½ç»™ç¾å›½æ–½åŠ çš„å‹åŠ›ã€‚

　　I loathe to make specific predictions, but my overall view is that the consequences of Trump’s actions will begin to take a toll on the US, making the trade war a focus of greater domestic discontent, amplified by the frustrations of US corporations for whom China is an essential market.

　　我ä¸å–œæ¬¢å¯¹æœªæ¥å¦„下æ–xad言，但是我的主è¦è§‚点是特朗普的行为最å还是会由ç¾å›½æ°‘ä¼—æ¥ä¹°å•ï¼Œç¾å›½æ°‘众也会é€æ¸æ„Ÿå—åˆ°è¿™ä¸€ç‚¹ã€‚ç‰¹æœ—æ™®æŒ‘èµ·çš„è´¸æ˜“æˆ˜ä¼šåŠ å‰§ç¾å›½æ°‘ä¼—çš„ä¸æ»¡ï¼Œä»¥ä¸xad国为主è¦å¸‚场的ç¾å›½ä¼ä¸šå¯¹ç‰¹æœ—æ™®æ”¿åºœçš„å¤±æœ›ï¼Œæ›´ä¼šåŠ å‰§è¿™ç§ä¸æ»¡ã€‚

　　Now, what does all this mean for international education in China, and for students who are considering further studies in the US?

ã€€ã€€é‚£ä¹ˆè¿™æ ·çš„å½¢åŠ¿å¯¹äºä¸xad国的国际教育，尤其是考虑到ç¾å›½ç•™åxad¦çš„ä¸xad国åxad¦ç”Ÿæ„味ç€ä»€ä¹ˆå‘¢?

　　Right now, I don’t sense any major shifts in the possibilities and opportunities available to students. While there have been stories about increased difficulties in securing visas, my sense is that these are far more the exception than the rule. And from every verifiable source I’ve heard, there has been no change to US policies – and by far, US college and universities have a great deal at stake if they faced challenges in recruiting end enrolling Chinese students.

　　目å‰ï¼Œæˆ‘并没有感觉到ä¸xad国åxad¦ç”Ÿå»ç¾å›½ç•™åxad¦çš„å¯èƒ½æ€§å’Œæœºä¼šæœ‰ä»€ä¹ˆå¤§çš„改å˜ã€‚尽管有人说å»ç¾å›½ç•™åxad¦çš„çxad¾è¯éš¾æ‹¿åˆ°äº†ï¼Œä½†æˆ‘认为这åªæ˜¯ä¸ªåˆ«äº‹ä»¶ï¼Œè€Œä¸æ˜¯è§„定和政çxad–上有什么改å˜ã€‚我所了解的å¯é 消æ¯æ¥æºéƒ½è¡¨æ˜ï¼Œç¾å›½ç•™åxad¦çxad¾è¯æ”¿çxad–并没有å‘生改å˜ã€‚æxad¤å¤–，如æœç¾å›½åxad¦é™¢å’Œå¤§åxad¦åœ¨æ‹›æ”¶ä¸xad国åxad¦ç”Ÿæ–¹é¢é‡åˆ°é˜»ç¢ï¼Œè¿™äº›åxad¦æ ¡ä¹Ÿä¼šå—到很大影å“。

　　Whatever drop in interest may take place will be a challenge for many schools who have become structurally reliant on tuition dollars from overseas, and they will exert any and all possible pressure to keep international student enrollment at current levels.

ã€€ã€€æ— è®ºæ˜¯ä»€ä¹ˆåŸå› 导致ä¸xad国åxad¦ç”Ÿåˆ°ç¾å›½ç•™åxad¦çš„兴趣é™ä½éƒ½ä¼šå¯¹ç¾å›½çš„一些ä»ç»“æ„上ä¾èµ–ç•™åxad¦ç”Ÿçš„åxad¦è´¹çš„åxad¦æ ¡äº§ç”Ÿè¾ƒå¤§å½±å“，这些åxad¦æ ¡ä¼šæƒ³åŠæ³•ï¼Œç”šè‡³æ˜¯æƒ³å°½åŠæ³•ä¸€åˆ‡åŠæ³•å‘æ”¿åºœæ–½åŠ å‹åŠ›ï¼Œä½¿å›½é™…生的录å–比ç‡ç»´æŒåœ¨ç°æœ‰æ°´å¹³ã€‚

　　If colleges and universities do face declining applications, they will work all the harder at recruitment, and one upside may be that they are more generous with admissions decisions in order to hedge any concerns about yield.

　　如æœç¾å›½çš„åxad¦é™¢å’Œå¤§åxad¦é¢ä¸´å›½é™…生申请人数下é™çš„情况，他们会在招生方é¢æ›´åŠ 努力。å¯èƒ½è¿˜ä¼šæœ‰ä¸ªå¥½å¤„，他们会在决定是å¦å½•å–æ—¶æ›´åŠ æ…·æ…¨ï¼Œä»¥å¯¹å†²å½•å–人数ä¸è¶³çš„情况。

　　As importantly, despite perceptions about the political climate in the US, educational institutions value openness and diversity, and want to provide a welcoming and supportive home for their students. I’ve not heard or read of any concerns whatsoever for Chinese students in the US.

　　åŒæ ·é‡è¦çš„是，ä¸ç®¡å¤§å®¶å¦‚何看待ç¾å›½çš„政治气候，ç¾å›½çš„大åxad¦éƒ½é常é‡è§†å¼€æ”¾æ€§å’Œå¤šæ ·æ€§ï¼Œè‡´åŠ›äºç»™åxad¦ç”Ÿä»¬è¥é€ 一个çƒxad烈欢è¿çš„，æ供支æŒçš„，åƒå®¶ä¸€æ ·çš„ç¯å¢ƒã€‚我暂时还没有å¬åˆ°æˆ–者读到过当å‰ä¸xadç¾å½¢åŠ¿ä¼šå½±å“ä¸xad国åxad¦ç”Ÿåˆ°ç¾å›½ç•™åxad¦çš„消æ¯ã€‚

　　It’s also worth noting that the value of an international or English-language-based education remains extremely strong, regardless of any issues between the US and China—the value of a US diploma is not limited to any one national context. Further, the time horizon for education stretches well beyond what will hopefully be a one-year Trump presidency, or the current trade dispute.

　　值得一æçš„æ˜¯ï¼Œæ— è®ºä¸xadç¾ä¹‹é—´çš„问题如何，国际教育或者是以英è¯xad为主è¦è¯xad言的教育的价值ä¾ç„¶å¾ˆé«˜ï¼Œè·å¾—ç¾å›½åxad¦ä½çš„价值并ä¸ä¼šå±€é™åœ¨ç¾å›½è¿™ä¸€ä¸ªå›½å®¶çš„范围里。å¦å¤–，好的教育所带æ¥çš„价值是终身的，时间跨度上会远远会超过特朗普剩下的或许是仅有的一年任期，也远远超过暂时的ä¸xadç¾è´¸æ˜“争端。

　　Our own relationship with GIA remains as strong as ever, and they are fully committed to our partnership and to their operations in China.

　　我们ä¸ç¾å›½GIAçš„åˆä½œå…³ç³»å’Œå¾€å¸¸ä¸€æ ·å分紧密牢固，他们一直都在全力为我们æ供支æŒï¼Œä¹Ÿåœ¨åŠªåŠ›æ¨è¿›åœ¨ä¸xad国的其它项目。

　　Considering all of this, I reflect on the sagely advice of an American who is quite astute when it comes to economic trends and the value of investment – Warren Buffet, whose advice I’ve always valued for my own decision making.

　　鉴äºä»¥ä¸Šæ€è€ƒï¼Œæˆ‘最å想分享一下ç¾å›½æ™ºè€…沃伦巴è²ç‰¹çš„建议，他在判æ–xadç»æµè¶‹åŠ¿å’ŒæŠ•èµ„价值方é¢é常æ•é”。 我在åšå†³å®šæ—¶ä¹Ÿç»å¸¸ä¼šå‚考他的建议。

　　Buffet remarks “In short, bad news is an investor's best friend.” Current uncertainty is an advantage to those with determination and clear goals. As he continues: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”

　　巴è²ç‰¹æ›¾ç»è¯´è¿‡ï¼š“简而言之，å消æ¯æ˜¯æŠ•èµ„者最好的朋å‹ã€‚”ç°åœ¨çš„ä¸ç¡®å®šæ€§å¯¹äºæœ‰ç€æ¸…æ™°ç›®æ ‡å’Œåšå®šæ„志的人æ„味ç€æœºä¼šå’Œä¼˜åŠ¿ã€‚他还说：“å½“åˆ«äººéƒ½è´ªå©ªçš„æ—¶å€™ä½ åº”è¯¥æ„Ÿåˆ°å®³æ€•ï¼Œå½“åˆ«äººæ„Ÿåˆ°å®³æ€•çš„æ—¶å€™ä½ åº”è¯¥è´ªå©ªã€‚

　　While I don’t exactly mean to endorse greed, I do mean to suggest that with pragmatic resolve, there are advantages to persevering with opportunities when others restrained by fear.

　　当然，我并ä¸æ˜¯è¯´äººè¦è´ªå©ªã€‚我åªæ˜¯æƒ³è¯´åªè¦æœ‰åŠ¡å®çš„决心，当其他人å—到æ惧的æŸç¼šæ—¶ï¼Œä½ è‹¥åšæŒæŠ“ä½æœºä¼šæ˜¯å¯ä»¥äº«æœ‰ä¼˜åŠ¿ï¼Œå 有先机的。

　　Even if things might get a bit more challenging before they get better, the pressures all nations face to ensure prosperity and stability sustained by an integrated global economy are much more likely to prevail.

　　å³ä½¿æƒ…况在好转之å‰å¯èƒ½ä¼šé¢ä¸€äº›æŒ‘战，但所有国家都é¢ä¸´ç€ç¡®ä¿ç¹è£ä¸ç¨³å®šçš„å‹åŠ›ï¼Œè€Œè¿™ç§ç¹è£ä¸ç¨³å®šæ˜¯ç”±å…¨çƒç»æµä¸€ä½“化所支撑的，这ç§ä¸€ä½“化的ç¹è£å’Œç¨³å®šä¹Ÿä¼šèµ¢å¾—最å胜利。

　　Having students who are knowledgeable of and familiar with the world’s two largest economies will certainly create an opportunity for their great future success.

　　拥有了解和熟悉世界上最大的两个ç»æµä½“çš„åxad¦ç”Ÿï¼Œè‚¯å®šä¼šä¸ºä¸¤ä¸ªå›½å®¶æœªæ¥çš„巨大æˆåŠŸåˆ›é€ 机会。留åxad¦äº¤æµæ˜¯ç¬¦åˆä¸¤å›½çš„å…±åŒåˆ©ç›Šçš„。